제목: ZERO TO ONE
저자: Peter Thiel
브라이언 요약: (실리콘밸리 역사책?)
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Preface: Zero to One
- 1 to n vs 0 to 1
- Zero to One is about how to build companies that create new things.
1. The Challenge of the Future
- 0 to 1: Vertical or intensive progress (Doing new things)
- 1 to 0: Horizontal or extensive progress (Copying things that work)
2. Party Like It's 1999
- Silicon valley entrepreneurs learned 4 big lessons
- Make incremental advances (Small incremental steps)
- Stay lean and flexible
- Improve on he competition (Don't create a new market prematurely)
- Focus on product, not sale
- Opposite principles are more correct.
- It is better to risk boldness than triviality.
- A bad plan is better than no plan.
- Competitive markets destroy profits
- Sales matters just as much as product.
3. All Happy Companies Are Different
- Creating value is not enough - you also need to capture some of the value you create.
- In 2012, average airfare each way was $178 with airlines made only 37 cents per passenger trip
- Google brought $50 billion in 2021 (vs $160 billion for the airlines), but Google kept 21%of those revenues as profits
- Perfect competition & monopoly
- Monopoly: we mean the kind of company that is good at what it does that no other firm can offer a close substitute. Google is a good example of a company that went from 0 to 1.
- Don't build an undifferentiated commodity business.
- Google: monopoly on what?
- Monopolies drive progress: because monopoly profits provides a powerful incentive to innovate.
4. The Ideology of Competition
- Our educational system both drives and reflects our obsession with competition.
- If you can't beat a rival, it may be better to merge.
5. Last Mover Advantage
- In 2013, Twitter valued at $24 billion : more than 12 times the Time's market capitalization. (Times earned$133 million in 2012 while Twitter lost money.)
- The answer is cash flow. (projected future cash flow)
- Will this business still be around a decade from now?
- characteristics of monopoly
- Proprietary technology: Google's search algorithms. Amazon's more book selections.
- Network Effects: network effects businesses must start with especially small markets.
- Economies of Scale: copy of the product is close to zero. Service businesses especially are difficult to make monopolies.
- Building a monopoly
- Start small and monopolize: start with a very small market. It is easier to dominate a small market than a large one. Red flag: getting 1% of a $100 billion market.
- Scaling Up: dominate a niche market then expand into related and slightly broader markets.
- Don't Disrupt: avoid competition as much as possible.
6. You Are Not a Lottery Ticket
- Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell: success by luck?
- Optimist welcome the future. pessimists fear it.
- Iteration without a bold plan won't take you from 0 to 1.
- Change and Design example: Steve Jobs from Apple in 1976, iPod
7. Follow the Money
- Vilfredo Pareto: Pareto principle: 80-20 rule.
- The power law.
- First. only invest in companies that have the potential to return the value of the entire fund. Second. rule number one is so restrictive, there can't be any other rules.
- The power law means that differences between companies will dwarf the differences in roles inside companies.
- One market will probably be better than all others.
- A conventional truth: it is not a secret.
- Conventions (Easy) - Secrets (Hard) - Mysteries (Impossible)
- What important truth do very few people agree with you on?
- What valuable company is nobody building?
- How to find secrets?
- Secrets of nature and secrets about people
- Secrets about people are different. things they don't know about themselves or things they hide.
- What are people running companies not allow to say? Ask
- What to do with secrets?
10. The Mechanics of Mafia
Image from Wikipedia. Back row from left: Jawed Karim, co-founder Youtube; Jeremy Stoppelman CEO Yelp; Andrew McCormack, managing partner Laiola Restaurant; Premal Shah, Pres of Kiva; 2nd row from left: Luke Nosek, managing partner The Founders Fund; Kenny Howery, managing partner The Founders Fund; David Sacks, CEO Geni and Room 9 Entertainment; Peter Thiel, CEO Clarium Capital and Founders Fund; Keith Rabois, VP BIz Dev at Slide and original Youtube Investor; Reid Hoffman, Founder Linkedin; Max Levchin, CEO Slide; Roelof Botha, partner Sequoia Capital; Russel Simmons, CTO and co-founder of Yelp
- Employees should love their work. They should enjoy going to the office so much that formal business hours become obsolete and nobody watches the clock.
- Hire people who would actually enjoy working together.
- Recruiting should never be outsourced.
- Talented people don't need to work for you. They have options. Why would some one join your company?
- Bad answers
- Good answers: 1. Mission 2. Team
- Every person in the company responsible for doing just one thing.
11. If You Build It, Will They Come?
- 3 kinds. 1. thinkers, leaders, and achievers 2. salespeople, consultants 3. workers and artisans.
- Customers will not come just because you build it.
- In Silicon Valley, nerds are skeptical of advertising, marketing, and sales. but advertising matters because it works.
- The best product doesn't always win.
- Strong distribution plan. CLV. CAC. (distribution is the hidden bottleneck.)
12. Man and Machine
- Computers are tools, not rivals.
- Technology is the one way for us to escape competition in a globalizing would.
- Machine learning, big data. Actionable insights can only come from a human analyst.
13. Seeing Green
- 7 questions that every business must answer:
- The engineering question
- The timing question
- The monopoly question
- The people question
- The distribution question
- The durability question
- The secret question
- Doing something different is what's truly good for society. and its also what allows a business to profit by monopolizing a new market.
14. The Founder's Paradox
Conclusion: Stagnation or singularity?
Zero To One by Peter Thiel